> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://docs.rakelaunch.xyz/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://docs.rakelaunch.xyz/rake/rwa-and-prediction/prediction-market.md).

# Prediction Market

RAKE prediction markets using YES/NO tokens and the source-defined settlement mechanism.

## Prediction markets

```
@rake_agent predict NVDA >150 Friday
```

A prediction request creates a YES/NO market around a defined outcome. The referenced asset is a stock token. A market outcome does not create financial ownership of the referenced stock.

### Market flow

```
Prediction request
    ↓
YES / NO market created
    ↓
YES and NO tokens can be traded
    ↓
RAKE swap infrastructure handles trading
    ↓
Settlement uses the Robinhood stock token registry + pool price
    ↓
Market fees enter RakeVault
    ↓
70 / 15 / 15 distribution
```

#### Create a YES/NO market

The request defines the outcome to be predicted. RAKE creates YES and NO tokens for that market.

#### Trade the market tokens

YES and NO tokens can be traded through RAKE's swap infrastructure. The source does not define odds calculation, a liquidity model, or market-maker mechanics.

#### Settle the market

Settlement uses the Robinhood stock token registry and pool price. The source does not define payout formulas, dispute handling, or resolution authority.

#### Route market fees

Market fees enter RakeVault. The documented 70/15/15 split applies to that fee flow.

{% hint style="warning" %}
Prediction markets are for entertainment, not financial advice.
{% endhint %}

Prediction markets are onchain betting around defined outcomes. They are not a guaranteed forecasting tool.


---

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